Swot

STRENGTHS

UCP Support Momentum

UCP Support Momentum • Sustainability: Medium-High • | Electoral • Leadership Review (91.5%) • Sustainability: High • | Internal • Majority Government • Sustainability: High • | Institutional • Canada-Alberta Energy MOU • Sustainability: Medium • | Policy • Healthcare Reform • Sustainability: Medium • | Policy • US Relationships (Trump) • Sustainability: Medium • | International • Federal Conservative Alignment • Sustainability: High • | Political • Fundraising Capacity • Sustainability: High •

WEAKNESSES

Personal Approval (46%)

Personal Approval (46%) • Recovery: Moderate • | Popularity • Approval-Partisan Gap (4pts) • Recovery: Moderate • | Popularity • Recall Petitions (26 active) • Recovery: Ongoing • | Political • Separatist Association • Recovery: Challenging • | Political • Healthcare Criticism • Recovery: Moderate • | Policy • Education Controversies • Recovery: Moderate • | Policy • Notwithstanding Clause Overuse • Recovery: Moderate • | Governance • Budget Deficit ($6.4B) • Recovery: Long-term • | Financial •

OPPORTUNITIES

Polling Momentum

Polling Momentum • | Electoral • 50% • 50% • Tariff Defense Positioning • | Economic • 40% • 40% • Pipeline Implementation • | Economic • 25% • 25% • Conservative Alignment • | Political • 50% • 50% • NDP Leadership Vacuum • | Opposition • 60% • 60% • Economic Recovery Narrative • | Economic • 50% • 50% • Federal Liberal Vulnerability • | Political • 30% • 30% • Nuclear Energy Leadership • | Energy • 15% • 15% • Tech Sector Growth • | Economic • 40% • 40%

THREATS

NDP under Nenshi

NDP under Nenshi • | Electoral • Prob: High • Increasing • Separatist Movement (28-30%) • | Political • Prob: Medium • Escalating • Recall Petitions Success • | Political • Prob: Low-Medium • Stable • Trump Tariff Impact • | Economic • Prob: High • Ongoing • Budget Crisis ($10B+) • | Financial • Prob: High • Worsening • Caucus Division Risk • | Internal • Prob: Medium • Increasing • Legal Challenges • | Governance • Prob: High • Stable • International Criticism • | Reputation • Prob: Medium • In