Predictive Modeling

Party Vote Share

46%

UCP • 46% • NDP • 41% • Liberal • 9% • Green • 3% • Alberta Party • 2% • Separatist • 2%

Electoral Outcomes

UCP Majority Government

UCP Majority Government • High confidence • NDP Majority Government • Medium confidence • Minority Government • Medium confidence • Tie or Recount • Low confidence

Vote Distribution

UCP

Mean • 46% • Median • 46.2% • Mode • 46.5% • 95% CI • 42.0-50.0 • Std Dev • 2.8 • Mean • 41% • Median • 40.8% • Mode • 40.5% • 95% CI • 36.0-46.0 • Std Dev • 2.5

Regional Analysis

Calgary Metro

Note: Regional projections are model estimates based on polling and historical data. • Calgary Metro • UCP: 15 • NDP: 11 • Edmonton Metro • UCP: 5 • NDP: 15 • Rural Alberta • UCP: 32 • NDP: 9

Key Predictions Summary

68%

UCP Majority in 2027 • Smith Completes Full Term • Early Election in 2026 • Separation Referendum Before 2027